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JGBs – resume selling
Sep. 3, 2013 September JGBs Current Position: Short Long Term Bias: Short JGBs look almost ready to break out towards new lows (high yields) following the fresh triangle break in Yen. We all know that...
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Treasuries – Looking to buy 3% 10s
Sep. 4, 2013 There are numerous reasons to be bearish on the Treasury market over the longer time frames. Issuance remains high, the Fed appears poised to taper and eventually wind down its asset...
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Treasuries – a lackluster bounce
Sep. 10, 2013 Friday’s payrolls coin toss fell in favor of the longs and was met with a strong initial reaction in the Treasury markets. The weaker than expected report helped push TY up by more than a...
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Treasuries – A Steeper Yield Curve
Sep. 20, 2013 Based on recent developments in monetary and fiscal policy, it seems logical to me that the yield curve should steepen in the coming weeks and months. Wednesday’s FOMC announcement showed...
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Equities – Seeking New Highs
Oct. 15, 2013 U.S. equity markets looked overbought and expensive in mid to late September, but the subsequent declines felt labored and even somewhat reluctant. On October 9 the markets made a modest...
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Energy Independence, Petrodollars, and Treasury Markets
Nov. 6, 2013 In my previous post about crude oil I touched upon a topic that generated additional interest from some of my friends in the Treasury markets. Specifically, I mentioned the potential...
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JGBs – Higher Yields Afoot
Nov. 15, 2013 Japanese government debt currently stands at an astonishing 240% of GDP. The BOJ is buying 70% of all net government bond issuance, helping to keep rates contained, but an improving...
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Macro View – Taper Too
Nov. 22, 2013 Reading between the lines of recent Fed communications, it’s becoming increasingly clear to me that the Fed wants to exit its quantitative easing policies as soon as possible. Though...
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Yen, JGBs, and Real Yield Differentials
Dec. 4, 2013 Selling Japanese Yen has been a good trade again these last few weeks, as the six-month triangle consolidation pattern seems to have finally cleared the path towards new lows. But the...
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Buy Treasuries, Sell JGBs
Dec. 9, 2013 Last week I sent around a chart comparing real (CPI-adjusted) government bond yields in several developed markets, showing the significant divergence between the U.S. and Japan in recent...
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Rate Cycles and Yield Curves – A Target for 5s
Jan. 10, 2014 In late 1992, just as the Fed was putting the finishing touches on a three-year easing cycle that took the Fed funds rate from 9.75% down to 3%, the 2s/5s Treasury curve peaked at a high...
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Treasuries Attractive Despite Taper
Jan. 17, 2014 U.S. Treasuries are starting to look interesting, and the market may be ripe up for a nice little rally in the coming quarter. Professional traders and investors have spent much of the...
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Yellen’s Testimony Today – Potential Disappointment
Feb. 11, 2014 As the financial world prepares to read, interpret, and react to Janet Yellen’s Monetary Report to Congress today, I thought it might be useful to take a quick glance at market movements...
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Treasury Curves and Fed Swerves
April 29, 2014 There’s been a lot of talk in the bond markets lately about the recent bid for the 30-year sector and the attendant flattening of the yield curve. While the 10yr note has done nothing...
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Stock Markets – the Cult of the Fed
June 9, 2014 (This comment is uncharacteristically light on chart content, as I am posting this from an island off the coast of Africa where internet connection speeds are a bit slower than I’m used...
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Noisy Inflation Trades
One of the highlights of an otherwise uneventful press conference by Fed Chairman Janet Yellen earlier this week was her carefree dismissal of recent inflation gains as mere “noise.” This was...
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Periodic Reassessment: Treasury Notes
Treasury Notes (TYU4), July 29, 2014 General Assessment: Speculators and real money investors remain meaningfully short / underweight Treasuries, and any softening of rate hike expectations or decline...
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Treasury Notes, Aug. 11, 2014 Reassessment
Treasury Notes (TYU4), Aug. 11, 2014 General Assessment: Speculators and real money investors remain short / underweight Treasuries, but many of these shorts are in no big rush to cover, and a new push...
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Treasury Notes, Sep. 5, 2014 Reassessment
Treasury Notes (TYZ4), Sep. 5, 2014 General Assessment: Many real money investors remain short / underweight Treasuries in anticipation of an eventual normalization in Fed rate policy, but there are...
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For the Love of the Dollar
As an independent futures trader, I spend a great deal of my time researching and trying to identify exploitable asymmetries and imbalances in the financial markets. When I determine, for example, that...
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